Pre-pandemic projections said China would enter negative population growth in 2027. But new estimates say it will shrink sooner than anticipated. China’s National Health Commission now predicts the country will experience negative population growth sometime before 2025.

This new estimate is based on preliminary 2021 fertility data. (See "Births in China Continue to Fall.") The number of births in many provinces were the lowest in decades. Henan recorded fewer than 800K births, the lowest reading since 1978. Hunan recorded fewer than 500K, the lowest reading since the 1960s. And Jiangxi recorded fewer than 400K, the lowest reading since the 1950s.

The Commission also released survey data that showed women intend to have fewer and fewer children. In 2017, Chinese women intended to have 1.76 kids. In 2021, that number fell to 1.64. We recently reported on a similar private sector survey that found few Chinese youth want to have children. (See "Youth Pessimism Deepens in "Zero Covid" China.")

So how does this 2025 estimate compare to the UN’s latest population projections? The UN has come to the same conclusion: China will first experience negative population growth this year--in 2022. This negative growth will continue through 2100. And China will lose more than 10M people a year in the 2050s and beyond. (See "U.N. Predicts Earlier Global Population Peak.")

These estimates are already pushing the CCP to lean more energetically into pronatalist policies. The National Health Commission just announced a new campaign to encourage births and discourage abortions. (See "China Plans to Curb Abortions.") And the Commission also reiterated its vow to make fertility treatment more available.